Wednesday, February 04, 2009

The Day After 24th April 2009

Dear Colleagues,

On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.

The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.

After every US presidential elections, Turkish Ministry of foreign affairs, Turkish armed forces, Turkish media, and Turkish intellectuals have an important task. When the winner is a democrat candidate, we should start to educate the newcomer, and his/her staff/ advisers, what they can expect, what to say, what not to say.

If they wish to be comfortable in the region, they should agree that Turkey is the key member of the alliance; hence Turkey is an indispensable ally. One should not declare any direct statement nor have any direct commitment on Armenia, Northern Cyprus, and Northern Iraq without prior consent of Turkish side. The outcome of the contrary is not so easy to foresee or to comprehend. Both sides pay consequences dramatically.

It is your writer’s humble observation that Mr. President has given free misfortunate speeches with no obligation, on above sensitive issues during his campaign.

It is our sincere feeling that his staff, his advisers has to give clear briefing what he can say, what he cannot say on these critical issues.

We all agree that there is now a clear consensus on the world superpower in this financial turmoil. One should accept that there is no superpower in the world but there are regional powers in every region.

In the east corner of Mediterranean sea, Turkey has certain substantial gravity. Similarly, Turkey also has certain governing gravity on the north Iraq. Armenian and Cyprus questions are too important, too sensitive issues not to be left to selfish Diaspora in USA.

Campaign speeches which are already spent the US Internal politics can not be continued in the International Affairs.

One should recall that Ronald Reagan had the same speech only once at the beginning of his 8-year Presidency period,

On April 22, 1981, he said "Like the genocide of the Armenians before it, and the genocide of the Cambodians which followed it . . . the lessons of the Holocaust must never be forgotten."

However he had never consumed any similar speech again thereafter, since he and his staff understood that it is too expensive for the US taxpayers.

We all know that the new President is a very clever intellectual, who deserves to rule 2- consecutive terms, and we hope that he will. We also hope that he will get that early briefing in the shortest period of time.

On the other hand, We Turks should have our own story to tell instead, and we Turks should start by quitting blaming others for our own lack of ingenuity...

Haluk Direskeneli, Ankara based Energy Analyst